"If the prevailing societal structure, which overburdens women with homebound responsibilities and duties, is not dismantled, South Korea's birthrate will continue to spiral downwards. If unchecked, by 2750, South Korea may be confronting the very realistic threat of national extinction," warns David Coleman, a renowned demographer and professor at Oxford University.
Famed for his in-depth research on demographics, the 77-year-old Coleman previously warned in 2006 at a United Nations population forum of the possible demise of South Korea as a direct result of extremely low birthrates.
In October 2022, he visited South Korea to participate in a thematic lecture organized by the Korean Institute for Future Population Studies titled "South Korea's Ultra-Low Birthrate Rendering National Extinction: A Matter of Global Concern."
This marked Coleman's fourth visit to South Korea. During an interview in Samsung-dong, Seoul, he stated, "Each time I visit South Korea, I am dismayed to observe that the total fertility rate here is continuously plummeting.” He expressed the belief, "The persistently low birthrate in South Korea is significantly influenced by its 'male-dominant culture'. While the economy has been rapidly developed since the 1970s, the burden of housework and childcare placed on women remains practically unchanged, consequently discouraging them from childbirth."
According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), long working hours, job insecurity, and continued work-related burdens after work are significant factors contributing to declining birthrates.
Coleman suggested that South Korea could take cues from countries like France along with Northern and Western Europe, where work and family life are better balanced. For instance, France has implemented fertility measures since 1939, fully covering child-rearing costs and education expenses as part of a solid welfare system. He applauded Sweden’s trend of promoting policies that facilitate married women to work hassle-free as another positive approach.
Coleman stressed the need to transform the prevalent stigma around "non-marital births" in South Korea, stating, "Countries that have successfully reversed low birthrates have non-marital births tallying up to 30% of total births." He also reiterated that although accepting immigrants may temporarily inflate the population, it's not a long-term solution. There's no guarantee that immigrants will always be from the younger generations, and with the worldwide trend of aging populations, immigrant groups will likewise age over time.
However, Coleman reminded that "Demographic predictions are based on 'what-if' scenarios, so the situation can change," and he concluded, "What's crucial is an overhaul in the mindset of the South Korean government and its citizens."
The article was recently posted on a popular online Korean community where netizens responded, "(The year 2750?) We last for a long time," "It's still a long time away. I guess Korea will change between that time if it wants to," "2750 is a really long time away, lol," "I think it's okay if we go extinct by 2750," "I would get married if I find a good guy but the guys here are not that good," "Mankind might go extinct before that," "We survive longer than I expected," "I'm more worried that we won't survive for the next 50 years," "Current civilization might not last that long," and "What about the earth?"
Look, the economy is not in the best position, competition is fierce, stress in an all-time high, and prices are going up while wages are staying the same. Kids are expensive, life is expensive. Some people just think more rationally and prudently about starting a family when the situation is not the best. I think it is a good thing cause kids are those who suffer the most if the home situation is far from ideal. Also, white dude is being dramatic.