A research study has revealed that the most significant factor contributing to low birth rates in South Korea is due to the impact of rising real estate prices, and this trend has been intensifying since 2010.

On January 3, the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements published a report called 'Diagnosis of Causes of Low Birth Rates and Policy Directions in Real Estate.' The study identified housing prices from the previous year, including both sales and rent, as a major factor influencing the decision to have the first child, according to 30.4% of respondents nationwide. This influence is more pronounced in the Seoul metropolitan area, where 38.4% of participants cited housing prices as significant, in contrast to 26.5% in non-metropolitan areas.

Although housing prices remain the predominant factor influencing the decision to have a second child, the percentage noting this concern has slightly decreased to 28.7%. Conversely, the contribution of education expenses increased to 9.1%, surpassing that of the deciding factor of having the first child (5.5%). For the third child, the impact of housing prices decreased to 27.5%, with education expenses rising to 14.3%.

Researcher Park Jin Baek, the report's author, analyzed, "To promote first-child births, policy support in the housing sector is crucial, while support in the education sector becomes essential for the birth of two or more children." He emphasized the necessity for tailored policies to recover birth rates for the first, second, and third children.

The study found that the birth rate from the previous year greatly predicts the number of children born three years later. For the first child, the biggest factors influencing this decision are last year's birth rate (76.2%), followed by housing prices (16.7%), women's participation in the workforce (3.9%), and the cost of education (1.5%). This shows that how common it is for others to have children strongly affects people's choices about starting a family.

When it comes to having a second child, last year's birth rate still has the most significant impact (59.8%), but housing costs (16.0%), women's jobs (12.8%), and education expenses (6.4%) also play important roles. Researcher Park suggests focusing on making housing more affordable and jobs more stable for young couples as key ways to encourage more births.

The study also notes that the effect of housing prices on deciding to have children has become quicker over the years. In the late 1990s, it took about ten months to see a change in birth rates after housing prices went up. But since the mid-2010s, this reaction is happening much faster.

The Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements stressed the importance of creating a continuous environment to increase first-child births and raise the total fertility rate, standing at only 0.78 as of last year. Proposed measures include expanding special housing supply for non-homeowner families with children, increasing supply through additional subscription score points, and introducing a property acquisition tax exemption system.

Researcher Park concluded, "Efforts should focus on expanding housing supply, such as equity accumulation-type housing, enabling newlyweds with insufficient funds to acquire a home with minimal initial capital and benefit from the rise in housing prices."