JYJ's successful split from SM Entertainment and the hardships they have endured in the years since the split are a modern K-Pop legend. Now that the Fair Trade Commission (FTC) has stepped in ordering SM Entertainment and the Korean Federation of Pop Culture and Art Industry (KFPCAI) to stop interfering with JYJ's activities, it seems like JYJ has finally emerged victorious from the struggle.

Or, it just seems that way on the surface. JYJ's response to this order was the first clue that things may not be all sunshine and rainbows from here on out:

"Although we still have a long way to go in the dark tunnel, we saw a streak of light in the far distance today. We will continue to walk endlessly towards that light and we will do our best every moment to return the support with abundant activities."

Sure enough, not long after the initial sanction was issued, SM and the KFPCAI came back with their own statement that they had never interfered with JYJ's activities and that they would be taking legal action against the sanction. 

Will the drama never end for JYJ?

Writers jennywill and contagion would like to discuss that question today through this new Hot Issue segment. We'll be debating back and forth and discussing the issue at length. Note that anything we say here is simply speculation by the authors- we can't know for sure what's coming for JYJ, but we can make some educated guesses.

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contagion:

Unlike, say, SHINHWA, who left SM after their contracts expired naturally, JYJ left TVXQ at the height of their popularity and in the middle of their contracts, bringing some of SM's allegedly unethical business practices to light and forcing them to rewrite contracts for all of their idols. Most fans assume that the reason JYJ doesn't get to promote on broadcasts or variety shows because SM is punishing them. It's a pretty sensible assumption to make- if JYJ succeeds and is able to go on as their own group with no difficulty, what's to stop any other idols from following in their footsteps?

The fan reaction to the initial sanction was really positive- high hopes that we'd be able to see JYJ on music shows, variety shows, and radio programs again. If the FTC says that SM and KFPCAI can't interfere anymore, JYJ should be able to make appearances whenever and wherever they want.

jennywill:

SM said that they haven't done anything, and this is one of the rare occasions where I believe something a label says. It's not because I implicitly trust SM or anything, but simply because SM doesn't have to do anything to make their position known. KBS, SBS, MBC, and even the big cable channel Mnet aren't stupid - they know if they bring JYJ on their shows, they'll lose access to TVXQ, Super Junior, Girls' Generation, SHINee, f(x), and EXO. The threat doesn't have to be articulated for it to be understood. Frankly, from a business perspective, JYJ can't compare to the influence that SM's full roster has. This new sanction likely won't do anything in favor of JYJ, and JYJ knows that.

contagion:

Do you think that SM would really hoard their other groups like that, though? EXO and Henry especially need the exposure, but even bigger groups can fall without exposure- TVXQ didn't win a single stage for "Catch Me" or "Humanoid", remember? If all the channels folded under public pressure from the FTC instead of the unspoken pressure from SM, I imagine SM would have no choice but to play along. Besides, Jaejoong and Yoochun have appeared on successful dramas on MBC (Yoochun on 'I Miss You' and 'Miss Ripley', and Jaejoong on 'Time Slip Dr. Jin') and SBS (Yoochun on 'Rooftop Prince' and Jaejoong on 'Protect the Boss')- if they can act in dramas, they should be able to perform and participate in music and variety shows.

jennywill:

Yes. SM may hoard their idols. They have a solid, long-standing relationship with KBS and have recently mended their relationship with Mnet, and it's unlikely that either company will suddenly betray their relationships with SM in favor of JYJ. Since SBS's 'K-Pop Star' sells itself as an SM, JYP, and YG audition show, SBS has more to lose than gain by bringing JYJ onto their shows, as SM could easily pull their support of the program if they chose to do so. This would only leave MBC to invite JYJ back onto their show. MBC's had a rickety relationship with SM in the past, but MBC stills stands to lose more by bringing on JYJ and losing other SM artists than by continuing to shun JYJ, especially if none of the other stations do.

Dramas are a different story - SM dominates in music-and-variety-land, but has far less influence in drama-land. However, they're trying to change that through SM C&C.

contagion:

That is true as far as dramas go- SM dramas tend to perform poorly in ratings domestically (though many do well overseas, which is why SM idols keep getting cast), while JYJ dramas generally perform well both domestically and abroad. The JYJ guys are pretty much acknowledged as good actors by the public (including Junsu in his musical stage productions), while SM artists are often stereotyped as bad actors, regardless of their actual level of talent.

Broadcast company/record label relations have been an issue in the past- YG's 2012 comebacks being one example- so it makes sense that those relationships would matter in deciding whether or not to schedule JYJ on a show. However, it's possible that pressure from the FTC and the public could be too great for the companies to stand up against.

Just for the sake of example, let's say that SBS allowed JYJ to perform on 'Inkigayo', so SM pulled BoA from 'K-Pop Star'. I imagine the FTC could step in and say that SM is trying to intimidate SBS into shunning JYJ and could pressure them to keep BoA on the show. Couldn't that pressure make a difference? Public pressure did seem to play a part in LOEN backpedalling on their decision to drop some of Junsu's 'Incredible' promotions, maybe similar pressure could work on SM.

jennywill:

While the public is interested in JYJ's fate, the only people willing to do anything about it- like sign petitions or stage protests or any of the other things that can convince companies to cave under pressure- are JYJ's fans. And while their fandom is big, if they were big enough to be able to pressure the broadcast stations or SM to do something about JYJ, we would have seen it play out that way a long time ago. JYJ has won lawsuits in their favor, but that has yet to fix any of their problems, so this new FTC sanction likely won't do much, either.

As far as the BoA example, the FTC may step in and put pressure on SM, but SM won't care. There are plenty of easy excuses they could use- she's too busy, there are scheduling conflicts, she's focusing on her drama, she's focusing on writing music for her next comeback, etc.- and the FTC likely wouldn't be able to prove otherwise. Sure, the public would probably suspect the real reason and point fingers at SM, but the public's been doing that towards SM out for years and it's hasn't changed anything.

In the end, what it comes down to is the power struggle. Remember how SBS said that YG was too strong for them to fight against? SM is just as strong (if not stronger) than YG. In the SM/music show power balance, SM wins out, and in the music show/JYJ balance, the music shows have the upper hand. JYJ is still very much at the bottom of the food chain.

contagion:
So basically, SM is still at an advantage. Even with the FTC's sanction, SM has enough power to potentially intimidate the broadcast stations without having to say a word, and SM can conceivably punish the stations for disobeying them without technically doing anything against the FTC's sanction. As long as SM has strong relationships with KBS, Mnet, and SBS, those networks are unlikely to willingly promote JYJ- this only leaves MBC for JYJ. However if MBC takes JYJ on, MBC may lose access to all SM artists, which could be a problem for the station. Beyond that, as we saw with the LOEN debacle, SM isn't the only company who might mess with JYJ just because they can.

It doesn't help that a large portion of JYJ's fandom has aged out of caring all that much about what goes on in the idol world, and being banned from broadcasts has prevented JYJ from gaining a significant number of new fans. Yes, the group still has a large and very dedicated following, but if their following was big enough to pressure programs into showing JYJ on broadcasts, JYJ would already be on broadcasts.

At this point, it seems that JYJ's best hope for getting on music broadcasts and variety again in the near future is for the FTC to stand over SM and the broadcasting companies and make a fuss over every little thing they do that could possibly affect JYJ. Fines and bad press could ultimately push these companies to finally make way for JYJ. Will this happen? There's no precedent for it, but if the FTC decides to make an example out of this case, it's not completely far-fetched.